Tension rises as the 2024 US presidential elections approach. Kamala Harris leads Trump narrowly in key swing states. Will history repeat itself?

Key Points on the 2024 US Presidential Elections

As the 2024 US presidential elections approach on November 5, tension is escalating, capturing global attention. Political analysts are focused on whether the United States will elect its first female president, Kamala Harris, or see a return of former President Donald Trump. Current polling suggests a narrow lead for Harris, with 49% support compared to Trump's 46%, indicating a potential shift in public opinion as the election date nears.

Harris, who became the Democratic candidate in July after Joe Biden's withdrawal, gained a significant boost after a debate with Trump on September 10. Following the debate, her popularity surged by 2.5 percentage points, further increasing by 3.3 points the following week, while Trump's numbers have notably declined.

Victory in the election hinges on securing electoral votes, with a total of 538 available and 270 needed for a win. Although all 50 states contribute to the electoral vote count, swing states play a crucial role in determining the outcome. The seven key swing states—North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan—are fiercely contested, with Harris leading in most but Trump showing strength in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

The competition in these swing states remains tight, with only a 2% difference in popularity between the candidates. This narrow margin highlights the unpredictable nature of the race. Historically, while the Democratic Party has a stronghold in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump's previous success in these states complicates predictions for Harris's performance this time around. As the election approaches, the dynamics may shift, leaving analysts uncertain about the final outcome.