On Sunday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump surpassed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for the first time this election cycle. The forecast now shows Trump with a 52% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Harris’s 42%. 

Since late August, the forecast had consistently favored Harris, with her winning probabilities fluctuating between 54% and 56%, while Trump was at around 44% to 46%. However, by early October, the gap began to narrow, resulting in a near-even matchup between the two candidates. 

This change in the forecast coincides with Trump's improved polling averages in crucial battleground states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously favored Harris. Trump has also maintained a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. 

Among the seven key swing states for 2024, Pennsylvania remains the only state where Harris holds an advantage, according to The Hill report. 

The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, with early voting already taking place in states like Georgia, California, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama. The candidate elected will begin their four-year term in the White House on January 20, 2025.